Blessed at UFC 300

How Can Max Holloway Stop Justin Gaethje?

Do not sound Hell’s Bells. The Blessed Express is on the tracks. Choo-Choo Mother Truckers!

Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway will be making his second foray into the Lightweight division this Saturday at the historic UFC 300 card for the “BMF Belt”. His first opportunity at Lightweight was for the interim strap against perennial contender Dustin Poirer in one of my favorite fights of all time.

Saturday’s fight comes against no less challenging a contender. Justin Gaethje has been in renewed form recently, halting the prospective Rafael Fiviez and avenging his loss to Poirer in brutal fashion; Justin Gaethje has never appeared to be better. Many have counted at Max from the start. Despite his legendary chin and status as an all-time great, his valiant losing effort against Poirer, size, and Gaethje’s power have led many to conclude that Gaethje is all but certain to crack Max Holloway’s chin.

I am no so assured of Gaethje’s victory. I agree that Gaethje is an incredibly difficult stylistic matchup for Holloway and he is almost certain to come out of this fight worse for wear. Holloway’s own form as of late is incredibly promising when looking at a fight against Justin Gaethje.

Where did Max go wrong in his first fight at 155, what can he learn, and how has he changed since?

Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.

Double-Edged Approach

Max Holloway put on an incredibly rousing performance against Dustin Poirer in 2018 despite losing the fight. He came on strong late (as he often does) but was not able to make up for the damage doled out by the Diamond in the earlier rounds. At this point in his career, Holloway was a non-stop, forward moving machine. Poirer’s power was the great equalizer that prevented Holloway from establishing his pace from the outset.

V1: Holloway’s forward movement and pace was effective through craft rather than force. Max comes forward while pivoting outside Poirer’s lead foot. This change in position is hidden by a non-committal rear straight. Now outside of Poirer’s lead hand and foot, Max throws a strong left straight over Poirer’s shoulder. With his foot already past Poirer’s knee, he takes the opportunity to off-balance Poirer, pushing him over the posted leg.

Holloway is still a cardiovascular demon but his approach in recent fights has had an emphasis on counter-punching and defensive cage craft. Never a defensive savant throughout his prime, recent fights against Arnold Allen and the Korean Zombie have showed an improvement in his defensive capabilities.

Both of these approaches have merit against Justin Gaethje, who often looks inconsistent in his approach between fights. Not the careless, violent machine he was, Justin Gaethje can still be rattled and forced to into his old habits. If you cannot wring these out of his technical veneer (as Charles Oliveira and Khabib did), you will have trouble with one of the most devastating counter-punchers in the sport.

On one hand Holloway’s pressure heavy approach might force Gaethje’s less favorable tendencies out. In its old form he will get hurt bad. It happened with Poirer, and the risk against Gaethje is all the greater. When utilized with a significant enough power threat, lighter punches to keep Gaethje defensive and hide stronger shots has been successful in the past. The problem is that Holloway lacks significant power to coerce Gaethje into being defensive.

V2: Alvarez rips Gaethje’s body and Gaethje responds with a big right hand. To stifle any potential pressure from Gaethje, Alvarez throws small shots to Gaethje’s head to keep him aware of potential offense. Since Alvarez is not overcommitting to his punches, he easily see’s Gaethje’s uppercut feint and hops out of range.

Rather, the sequence in V3 is a good microcosm for how Max can approach the Gaethje fight with his upgraded style to wrench victory from an apparent hell.

V3: Holloway circles off the cage as not to get trapped and control the center. He uses the double jab to back Poirer to the cage from a relatively safe distance. Once on the cage, Holloway throws some non-committal strikes to the head and strikes HARD to the body. Body shots often allow for an easy clinch opportunity, where Max can push Poirer against the fence, throws knees to the body, and continue his body punching assault.

What Holloway exhibits is well considered aggression. More careful when on the outside to stay off and push his opponent towards the fence, choosing to let loose with hard strikes, clinches, and clinch breaks when the opponent has less defensive options.

Max Holloway’s recent style is more in the mold of an offensive counter-puncher. He maintains a steady stream of offense, periodically pausing to assess the opponent’s reactions. If the opponent overcommits to a counter, Holloway is ready to capitalize upon their mis-step. V4 is an example of how Gaethje himself can be coerced into handling a pressure-heavy opponent.

V4: Oliveira throws a strong rear hand after posting on Geathje’s head. He takes small steps forward until Gaethje throws some wild hooks, which Oliveira need only take a step back to avoid. When Gaethje feels cornered, he relies on his power, and that same reliance takes him out of position.

Holloway might not have the power in his hands to force Gaethje into desperation. My guess is he won’t need to rely on it.

The Stance: Muay Thai Max

Max Holloway built his reputation as a ceaseless combination puncher with exceptional ring awareness. This all changed when he met Alexander Volkanovski (See V10).

Since Max Holloway’s second fight with the former Featherweight king, he has become much more fluid in how he chooses to fight opponents. Against Volkanovski, Allen, and Rodriguez, he was much happier to stand tall with a light lead foot while incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. When Holloway faced Poirer (V6), he was more reliant on his jab and fought heavy on his lead foot and more hunched like a boxer. He was made a sucker for the low kick on multiple occasions, something to be avoided against Justin Gaethje.

V6: Holloway’s style in the Poirer fight left him punching his way out of exchanges and much more vulnerable to the low kick. Poirer is not the powerful kicker Gaethje is, but he is a fighter who is more than willing to kick when the opportunity presents itself.

Holloway’s recent form bodes well in his match against Justin Gaethje. Gaethje himself is more varied kicker than ever but his kick defense leaves quite a bit to be desired (V7-9). Gaethje’s win against Fiziev was incredibly close, he had trouble dealing with Fiziev’s kicking until he slowed down, allowing Gaethje to establish his jab.

V7: Gaethje rarely had an answer for the body kick while he was moving against Fiziev. Whenever Gaethje was moving laterally, Fiziev would slot a body kick under Gaethje’s guard. His primary response is to simply duck into the clinch. He can create offense from here but it does not negate the kick in any meaningful way.

Holloway is not the power kicker that Fiviez is but he is arguably as competent at slotting them into his tool-belt to create a cohesive game. Kicking Gaethje from range serves a few purposes.

V8: Gaethje is even less prepared to defend a front kick to his body. The front kick is a wonderful attritive weapon that serves to sap at his gas tank, and push him back to maintain pressure.

1. It keeps you out of range of his powerful punches

2. Kicks to the body tire him out

3. More ready to defend his low kicks when kicking from range

4. Abusing Gaethje’s body and legs keeps your offensive output high, and ahead on the scorecards early.

V9: Fiziev nicely ties the two techniques above together here. Fiziev front kicks to keep Gaethje in kicking range. Gaethje moves to his right to take away the front kick, but moves right into the body kick as a result. Force movement with the teep and punish it.

Gaethje is not the cardio machine that Max Holloway is. Gaethje’s stellar round 3 agains Fiziev was possible because Fiziev himself gassed out. The more Holloway kicks Gaethje’s body from the outside throughout the earlier portions of this fight, the less likely he is to get rattled by Gaethje’s power.

V10: Holloway came out in his rematch against Volkanovski with a light lead leg and upright stance. This was perfect against the short man who loves low kicking. When Holloway tried to step in behind a floating teep, Volkanovski retaliated. With his more mobile stance, Holloway was prepared to step out of range and evade rather than trade.

If Holloway can maintain outside position and wear at Gaethje’s cardio, he has a much greater chance of ramping up the pressure by round 3 where Gaethje will be diminished, desperate, and not as powerful. When Gaethje is tired and pressured he becomes desperate. Max Holloway can take advantage of that.

V11: Holloway has maintained his love of staying upright and bouncy on the outside. When Holloway wants to begin punching he steps into range and lowers his weight on the lead leg. Holloway moves through his punches to land a glancing back kick to the body, a favorite of Holloways. This would be great against Gaethje for the body work aspect, but Holloway actually ends up switching stances with the kick and on a 90 degree angle to Allen. Kicks are more than just damaging tools.

Gaethje himself is no defensive master nor does he have the history of durability Max Holloway has. It is difficult to finish him without accumulating a lot of damage, but the more you can rattle him the more likely it becomes. He can be hurt, and the more he gets hurt, the more his technique and decision making deteriorate.

V12: Holloway abuses the leg from the outside. Allen tries to enter punching range but Holloway need only post his arms out to stifle him. He attempts to counter Allen’s subsequent entry. He does not land but does come out on a nice angle, propagated by his dipping jab. Maintaining kicking range gives Holloway more time to react to his opponent’s entries, especially when they’re trying to land power.

Holloway’s reinvention as a kick-heavy counterpuncher worked wonders against the powerful Arnold Allen. Allen is more route in his approach to landing power than Gaethje at his best, but Holloway was able to diffuse him all the same.

V13: Holloway does as all great kickboxers do and sets up his kicks with punches. Holloway jabs from outside of range to get Allen to throw his rear hand. He is too far to land it: Holloway was never looking to enter a boxing exchange in the first place. He lets Allen commit to his offense to land a clean body kick, circling out when Allen tries to kick himself.

Holloway is constantly playing with kicks off either stance which are often set up by punches and feints, and allow him to gain favorable angles and more time to react to his opponents offense (V11-V13). Holloway need only stay busy enough against Gaethje. A steady kicking game throughout the first two is sure to tire Gaethje out. Maintaining this range is also his best chance of staying safe early.

V14: Kicking in between apparent punching exchanges is another great idea against Gaethje. Holloway jabs, slots in the body kick, and throws the rear straight to punish a potential return from Allen.

Holloway tried to out-match Poirer in pressure punching, and the powerful differential swung this heavily in Poirer’s favor. Holloway does not seem to be as stubborn as he once was, but who knows how having the “BMF Belt” on the line will impact the decision making of each man. From what I’ve seen thus far from Holloway, it seems he could care less about the “belt”, and is intent on proving his stock at lightweight with a win agains the Highlight.

V15: In the open-stance matchup, the proximity between the lead legs makes it a prime target to kick and stomp. Holloway kicks Arnold just as he steps down with a step-up outside leg kick, and then stomps the lead leg as Allen tries to come in.

Holloway would also be well-served by leg kicking with Gaethje. Having a light lead foot makes defending Gaethje’s leg kicks easier and he can be punished with the very same weapon. More so than trading leg kicks for damage (a battle Holloway would lose), Holloway’s leg kicks are often to prevent the opponent from pressuring him (V12, V15).

V16: Holloway throws a head kick, acting as a threatening weapon that keeps Allen’s hands up. With the prospect of getting head kicked, Holloway can use the floating teep to get Allen moving backwards at anything looking like a kick.

The head kick is also a great weapon to use sparingly. The destructive potential of any one throwing a head kick is high. Holloway himself almost knocked out Volkanovski with one for instance. Using the head kick as precursor to pressuring would be most useful against Gaethje with his hair trigger counters. A blocked head kick keeps the opponent from punching, and subsequently feinting keep Gaethje either defensive and moving backwards (V16), or can bait an over-committed counter shot.

V17: Fiziev kicks Gaethje as he punches, but merely shells up as he regains his stance. Staying in place allows Gaethje to pour on the pressure and land some significant offense on Fiziev.

If Gaethje is on however, kicking him while he is in his stance could prove disastrous. Fiziev found the most success kicking Gaethje as he moved into his kicks. The time Fiziev kicked Gaethje while is in his stance (V17), he came back with a flurry of devastating punches. Thankfully Holloway is often moving laterally right after he kicks or coming out on an outside angle, rather than staying planted. Still, it is something to be aware of, and something that can be exploited given Gaethje’s habit of overcommitting to his punches.

Blessed w/ the Art of Decision Making

Holloway’s biggest blunder against Poirer was choosing to exchange when hurt. Poirer would rock him with a large shot, and his immediate reaction was to back himself to the cage and start throwing down in the pocket (V18-V19).

V18: Poirer cracks Holloway who actually does quite a good job of not getting hit, hitting Poirer, and moving off. However, he likely would have been safer had he chosen to move laterally off teh cage rather than exchange.

Getting hurt can certainly impede the decision making of a fighter to an extent, or maybe since this was Holloway’s first time getting hurt to this extent in a professional fight, he wasn’t sure how to respond. He’s down to scrap but he simply wasted away his durability in choosing to exchange with someone as powerful and accurate as Poirer.

V19: Holloway easily turns himself off the cage here, but doesn’t do so until he’s eaten a couple more clean shots from one of the best pocket-boxers in the sport.

I can only assume that Holloway has learned from this fight in looking to challenge himself at lightweight again. If his recent fights are any indication, he has.

V20: Allen lands a flush right hook. Holloway dips out to land his own left hook on the outside, but Allen continues his assault. Rather than continue to exchange, Holloway gets out of dodge and turns to face Allen. He realizes that exchanging with him only increases Allen’s chances.

Against one of featherweight’s more powerful punchers, Holloway was looking to exit exchanges (V20) or prevent them from happening entirely (V21).

V21: Allen again looks for his right hook into overhand left. The right hook gets him into range to land the left. Rather than planting and countering as he did before, Holloway.

Holloway’s decision making has certainly improved, but it was propagated by his new style. Now that he stays on the outside, kicking to to force counter opportunities, he feels as though he has more than one way to win. Throughout his title run, Holloway relied on his relentless pace. He can likely still out-pace most fighters on the planet, but realized how lacking his defense was in this mold. Now that he was won or performed incredibly well as an offensive counter-puncher he has the confidence to approach fights this way and lacks the arrogance to believe he can brutally enforce his sheer will on every opponent standing across from him. Arrogance is killed through competence, sowing the seeds for confidence.

V22: Holloway throws a flicking kick to enter punching range. Holloway opts to grab Allen by the wrists rather than force a punching exchange. Allen disengages to throw an elbow, but Holloway is able to dip out, scoop the collar tie, and knee Allen to the body. Much in the mold of Oliveira against Gaethje.

Blessed Body Shots

I have harped on the importance of body kicks to tire Gaethje out throughout the early portions of this fight, but any and all body work by Max Holloway will be welcome. Holloway was happy to head-hunt Dustin Poirer throughout the first 3 rounds of their classic (V23). Poirer has such an obvious opening to the body when defending with his Hillbilly Shell that it seems silly in retrospect that he was pulled into a war of head punches against a man more powerful than himself.

V23: Holloway’s punches were rendered largely ineffective due to Dustin Poirer’s defensive shell. Max Holloway found success, but any rhythm he tried to build with his combinations was halted.

He found the most success in the latter rounds when he began focusing his punching attack on Poirer’s body, slowing him down and opening the avenue for head punches that would have been defended earlier.

V24: Alvarez enters range with a jab coaxes Gaethje into covering up. Gaethje’s guard is porous and Alvarez easily slots in hard shots to Gaethje’s body under the elbows. Alvarez throws a retreating left hook and jabs to prevent any attempts by Gaethje to re-enter punching range. I can see Holloway replicating sequences like this in the latter rounds of their fight, should it get there.

Gaethje is certainly a more improved fighter than he was but he has been known to be susceptible to a committed body attack. Charles Oliveira was able to knee Gaethje’s body into oblivion but Eddie Alvarez has provided us with the best body punching performance against Justin Gaethje (V24). Even with Max Holloway’s recent roundedness body punching is still a staple of his game (V25).

V25: Allen enters punching range, but Holloway slips outside of Allen’s straight and rips the body with each hand. Reminiscent of Holloway’s former foe Jose Aldo dispatching Jeremy Stephens. Holloway can have a field day hitting Gaethje’s body if he can coax Gaethje’s guard up like Alvarez . Inherently more risky than kicking the body from the outside early in the fight.

Holloway Hold ‘Em

An area of the fight which many seem to be ignoring is any prospect of grappling. Gaethje tends to have great takedown defense but it saps at his cardio. He can get up quickly from a scramble but is often left standing with his mouth hanging open (V26).

V26: Poirer times a great double leg under Gaethje’s punches. Gaethje elevates Poirer the moment they get to the ground and stands up but look at this man. His mouth his hanging open, he is visibly tired, and his posture goes to shit when entering into range. Grappling tires Gaethje out.

Holloway himself showed his grappling chops as recently as his barn burner with Yair Rodriguez. He was able to get him down on multiple occasions but that might prove difficult against the larger, stronger Justin Gaethje. Holloway need only show Gaethje that the threat of wrestling will be something to consider in this matchup.

V27: Holloway uses the Frankie Edgar post single to get Rodriguez thinking of the takedown and push him to the fence. Rodriguez’s kicks were neutralized agains the fence and Holloway could now work on his clinch offense and whittle Rodriguez down.

Showing the post single to push the opponent backwards is the perfect weapon to stifle the opponent’s offense and keep them wary of the threat (V27). Cory Sandhagen used this wonderfully against Chito and Song Yadong. If Holloway can get Gaethje down, perfect. If he can’t, then he can use the threat to pressure Gaethje and disengage to land offense of his own.

V28: Oliveira grabs the collar tie off Gaethje’s low kicks and employs the dual threat of the guillotine and knees to the body. Gaethje is solely focused on disengaging and does not show much poise while doing so.

Gaethje despises getting pressured and will often spazz out with punches when his back touches the cage (V28). Max Holloway can follow suit to Oliveira to keep Gaethje on his toes with pressure and continue to brutalize the body of Gaethje, something he has used to great effect against the fence (V29).

V29: Holloway maintains pressure by stabbing a knee to Rodriguez’s body and disengaging, but not so much that he has the ability to get off the cage. Employing the grappling threat could pay huge dividends against Justin Gaethje.

Max Holloway will certainly have to walk through hell early in this fight. Justin Gaethje has a real chance of cracking his chin if he chooses to fight like he did Poirer. Between the two men though, Holloway is the far more reliable fighter when it comes to game planning and strategy. Gaethje can be brilliant but when things start going wrong, any plans get thrown out the window.

Justin Gaethje has a shot to stake his claim at a third title opportunity. I believe Max Holloway has a much better chance than many are giving him credit for, and he might be deciding which weight class he wants a title in after this fight. What do you think?

Is the Blessed Express on the tracks, or will the Highlight derail Max Holloway’s lightweight prospects?

-Kick