Francis Ngannou has little more than a prayer of beating Tyson Fury this Saturday in Saudi Arabia. An extremely small sliver of a chance. I will never count a man out, especially one who has grabbed life by the balls and overcome as many obstacles as Francis Nagnnou, but the odds are not in his favor.
This isn’t all too dissimilar to the storied MayMac fight. An enigmatic knockout artist making the jump from MMA to take on one of the most skilled boxers of the era. There’s always a “puncher’s chance”, but it is just that.
Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.
MMA striking is completely different from boxing. Fighters have to consider knees, elbows, kicks, takedowns, and a more emphasized clinch. This means that defense is completely different and why you see so few defensive savants in MMA. There is too much to consider. Boxers hone their punch defense to the nth degree, and the movement of Floyd and Fury, who have been boxing since they were out of the womb, is evidence to the time they have dedicated to this craft.
I do believe that a man like Tyson Fury will look to finish Ngannou in 3. Fury has finally agreed to a fight with all-time great Usyk for December 23rd. The fight sells itself from a meritocratic and technical perspective, but far fewer people are aware of Usyk than Fury. Fury will be looking to make a statement with this side-show of a fight in comparison, and draw more eyes to the Heavyweight unification before Christmas.
So what am I writing about?
Despite my pessimism regarding Ngannou’s chances, I’d like to craft a possible gameplan for him from the success that similarly touted knockout artist, Deontay Wilder, had against Fury.
Wilder still lost that fight, and despite how rough around the edges he is considered as a boxer, he is much more skilled in the art of boxing than Ngannou. It took a man as skilled as Fury to beat him, and he almost got knocked out 3 times in the process. Regardless, what can Ngannou do against the Gypsy King?
The third match between Wilder and Fury was the one where we saw the Bronze Bomber have the most success. I remember watching this fight live and immediately saying '“Did Wilder just throw some body jabs?” I was so surprised. For all the flack Wilder gets for being nothing more than a one trick pony, he is a skilled boxer who is becoming more cogent as a tactician int he back half of his career.
So why was this such a positive sign?
Generally, Wilder is a fighter who is willing to burn rounds in order to make a read and wait for the perfect moment to land his killer blow. In their first fight he did, but it didn’t work. In the second Fury adopted a heavy pressure game and did not give him the opportunity to find an opening. Wilder realized that he needed to steal the initiative himself. He chose to become the aggressor, and rather than targeting the head, he put his power to good use to bludgeon the body.
Tyson Fury is a large man with a fat belly and a long torso. He has wonderfully quick head movement but the body does not match. Wilder had such a tough time finding Fury’s head, so he brought things downstairs. Wilder was able to land his punches to the body on Fury with almost no pushback in the first. Against a movement heavy fighter like Fury (usually), attritive work is key to slowing down his movement so he can land that Sunday punch to the head later.
Its a shame Wilder did not maintain this game plan throughout the fight, as it fit so well with his game and puts his power to use. Hitting the body is better than hitting nothing, and Fury struggled to adapt to it throughout the early rounds.
Ngannou has much less film to go on, given most of his fights end in the first, but he has targeted the body before. In his title winning bout against Stipe Miocic, he did decide to throw a jab and straight to the body like Wilder above. Not the same effect but he has done it.
Ngannou, despite how hulking he is, still is shorter than Tyson Fury and will be coming in as the smaller man. Targeting the body will be just as salient an idea for him as it was for Wilder. He is going to have a hard time hitting Fury in the head with the range difference and Fury’s movement. He should seek to take the initiative early and score on Fury while tiring him out with shots to the mid-section.
The other advantage to pressuring your opponent with body shots is that you can take away their range by backing them into the ropes. Wilder is able to push Fury into the ropes with body shots as Fury’s main defense is to move straight backwards.
Just as in MMA, your movement options are limited, even more so in a corner. Having limited movement means less options for offense and a greater need to defend. The man on the outside has all the options. Ngannou needs to take a page out of Fury’s book and use consistent, threatening body work to tire Fury out and corner him.
Once Fury has his rear closed off, Ngannou can try and throw his heavier, more damaging shots.
Another simple move that pairs nicely with the body jab is the double jab upstairs. The double jab is a great weapon that forces the opponent backwards, much in the same way the body jab did. Neither jab has to land necessarily, the mere threat of them will move the opponent back and keep them thinking.
In the sequence below, Wilder throws the double jab to gauge Fury’s reaction. He then throws it again to replicate the reaction and throw an overhand while moving in. Though it didn’t land, it was a great idea to set up his power shots by forcing Fury to move how he would like. Wilder had the initiative here.
Thankfully we have seen Ngannou do this exact thing to Miocic. The jabs certainly look a bit more wooden, but it gets the job done in a similar way. The jabs force a reaction from Miocic, while the overhand tries to take advantage of this movement.
A nice little addition by Ngannou here mixing up the target with his jab. Double jab —> body jab —> overhand actually allows his power shot to land. The jab truly is the more versatile punch in boxing, and utilizing it in a variety of ways is how you take the control the action of a fight and force the opponent to respond to what you are doing. Fury has a much more versatile jab than Ngannou, but he can still try.
A similar thing is accomplished by Wilder here, mixing up the target with his jab allowing him to land a crisp right straight to the body. Keep them guessing with the jab and capitalize on their confusion with power. This is only exacerbated by Ngannou and Wilder being such heavy hitters. Even their jabs are not going to feel good because of how innately powerful they are.
Wilder’s work did pay off. In the 4th round, Wilder threw a body jab, and followed with a combination upstairs that brought the hulking mass of a human down. Though the shot looked somewhat glancing, Wilder has separated men from consciousness with worse shots, and Fury was sent reeling.
Ngannou, if he wants to find any success at all, should try and replicate a game plan like this.
This would be the key for Ngannou, but there’s other wrinkles he can utilize as well. Coming from MMA, there is a ~supposed~ advantage for Ngannou in this position, but I am not so sure. Fury is quite an adaptable fighter and in the second Wilder fight exhibited a beautiful control of the inside game and clinch.
Francis has shown good work targeting the body on the inside before, but only in moments. Fury’s size will and ability here will likely give him the advantage, but maybe Ngannou can force him off with his power.
In the 4th, Wilder was able to land a beautiful shot to sit Fury down again with a single collar tie. This was however, after Fury had been knocked down previously. He was dazed and still getting his bearings, and out-working Wilder on the inside was much less important than defending. If Ngannou wants to find success on the inside, he will have to hurt Fury first.
Do I think Ngannou will be able to accomplish any of this? No. Fury won’t want to risk a protracted exchange with the Usyk fight on the horizon, who himself is a tough stylistic matchup for the Gypsy King. I think the fight will look like an accelerated version of the second Wilder match.
On one hand, it would be incredible if Ngannou could accomplish the impossible. It would be a story for the ages. On the other, it would ruin one of the best title unification fights in boxing today. A truly historic fight.
I’m fairly certain Fury will get it done, but who knows, maybe Ngannou will read my article 24 hours before the most lucrative fight of his life.
