Diego Lopes: To the 3 Kings

How Can Lopes Reach the Top?

Diego Lopes fundamentally dismantled Brian Ortega at Noche UFC (UFC 306). Brian Ortega has long held an inflated ranking that does not reflect his record or skill level. Still a talented fighter with an impressive and gritty win over Yair Rodriguez, Brian Ortega’s most famous performances have been his ability to survive the beatings he received at the hands of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.

Lopes on the other hand has been storming through the featherweight division since his competitive loss to Movsar Evloev. With this win over Ortega, he now has 5 wins in the past 13 months, three of which came by first round finish. Diego Lopes is now staring at the top of the division where only monsters await. What can Diego Lopes expect as he ascends this gauntlet?

Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.

Best Not Forget

Diego Lopes has always been my king of transitional offense. Not a cornerstone of his success in this fight but the cornerstone of his offense to this point in MMA. He still showed flashes of what makes him such a special fighter here (V1-V3). A more surprising showing was his ground and pound. Not a hard and fast rule, but I’m not used to seeing active MMA guard players showcase such potent techniques like Fedor’s classic throw by into crashing right hand (V4) and a knee cut to pin the guard while throwing punches (V5). Transitional offense is my favorite part of Lopes’ game but it is not the focus of this article. With this win over Ortega Lopes has catapulted himself into the top 3 of the division’s contenders. The only featherweights awaiting Lopes are Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Ilia Topuria. One is the champion looking to cement his legacy, the others are among the greatest talents that the sport has ever seen. While transitional offense and quick submissions forged his wins on the come up, Lopes’ last two against Ige and Ortega have given us an extended look at his striking. His flaccidity against Ige can be attributed to the last minute fight announcement and switch in opponent. Now that he has finally dismantled a fellow featherweight on the feet where do his prospects lie against the 3 kings of featherweight?

V1: Lopes crashes into a rear hand off of his caught front snap kick.

V2: Lopes grabs a collar tie as Ortega crashes in working uppercuts to the body. He pulls Ortega’s head down into an uppercut as he breaks away and finds a left hook as he retreats without his stance. Lopes comes forward and hits Ortega just hard enough to bring him stumbling to the ground.

V3: Lopes is on the back of a standing Ortega while trying to sink in a rear naked choke. Lopes abandons the position and immediately starts hooking to Ortega’s head with a collar tie. He ducks under Ortega’s punches and ends the exchange with a jab.

V4: Lopes uses a throw by pass to land a hard shot on Ortega’s head and continue his ground and pound into an underpass.

V5: Lopes uses a nice MMA style pin here. He does not worry about the knee shield, pressuring into it, and staples Ortega’s bottom leg with a knee cut. Though Ortega tries to get wrist control here, he is essentially immobilized where Lopes can throw punches for free.

The Blueprint

Lopes’ strengths on the feet lie in his crushing power and timing. To illustrate a generalized approach for Lopes’ future fights, refer to V6. When looking towards the top, the commonality among the 3 Kings is their splendid boxing. Expressed in different ways, each man is well known for their footwork, jab, and combination punching. If you need a reminder, I suggest watching these fights and pay special attention to their footwork.

Max Holloway vs. Aldo 1 & 2, Ortega, Kattar, Gaethje

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 3, Korean Zombie

Ilia Topuria vs. Josh Emmet

Lopes' own striking game is not what I’d call nuanced, but he can better leverage his physical gifts by tailoring his approach. Rather than learning skills he has not yet shown in the cage, it is more feasible to change one’s decision making. It is possible that he comes into his next fight with a new batch of techniques, but this cannot be expected of any one. Rather, we can work within his current skillset and modify it so that he is more likely to find a kill shot / submission agains the champions that stand above him.

V6: Lopes feints his jab and kicks Ortega’s lead leg from the outside. Ortega wants to get into punching range, so he advances with a double jab but does not have any ideas to follow up. Lopes ducks inside the jab and throws a cross-counter over the top to knock Ortega out standing, and wake him back up with the left hook. Lopes follows him around the cage and drops him with another right hand.

From long range, Lopes’ kicking should be the backbone of his offense. When looking at Charles Oliveira, we see him kick so often because of his incredibly active guard and ability to get back his feet. He consistently scores damage with his kicks and is not afraid of being taken to the ground while on one leg. Lopes has adopted a similar style of guard; incredible offensive potency, constant movement, and ability to stand back to his feet rather than sit and wait on bottom. Without worrying about the takedown, Lopes can kick with more abandon than he did here. His best kick was the calf kick, constantly timing Ortega as he stepped into range to sweep it out from under him (V7). Less prevalent were front kicks. I and many other analysts harp on the important of attritive weapons, and the front snap kick is one of the most effective at maintaining kicking distance and damaging the body (V8). We saw how effective they can be in round 5 of O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili. Timing calf kicks while making the front kick his “jab” from range can mask his lackluster footwork and positioning while adding a potent weapon that he can throw with little consequence.

The other rarity in Lopes’ arsenal is the high kick (V9). Not a perfect kick technically, but it doesn’t need to be. Its powerful, and round kicks can be a way to punish those with much better footwork than him. Lopes largely operates in straight lines with little lateral movement. Watch any of the fights listed above, and you will see masterclasses in subtle lateral movement used both offensively and defensively. Rather than try and become a master of footwork before his next fight, he can find ways to exploit their (technically correct) tendencies. This is not to say that pivoting and lateral movement do not work in a sport with kicks (THEY DO) but round kicks are the most powerful weapon to catch an opponent moving in the same direction. Though Lopes has an eye for a counter punch he will likely get baited into an overcommitment if he tries to rely on this against the upper echelon of featherweight feinters. Stick to kicking on the outside, which is rarely a bad idea against the shorter Volkanovski and Topuria especially (see their respective fights against Islam Makhachev & Jai Herbert).

V7: Ortega lands a left hook within a trade. Just as Ortega steps into range to jab, Lopes throws the low kick to knock his base out from under him.

V8: Lopes throws a round to Ortega’s body which gets deflected, returns into a short stance, and follows up with a front kick with his lead leg.

V9: Lopes throws the classic 1-2 feint head kick to land right on the dome of Ortega.

Lopes is a big man for the division and his opponents must now contend with getting into range past his arsenal of kicks. The calf kick is able to punish an obvious step in (V10), and the front and round kicks are meant to force an overcommitted attempt to close the distance. Lopes countered Ortega on two occasions trying just this. Ortega proactively moved in himself with a shifting rear hand feint (V11), and Lopes baited Ortega to throw by dropping his level as if to throw (V12). He has the timing to see these things, but still has a glaring defensive hole in his game.

V10: Lopes kicks Ortega’s lead leg as he steps into range.

V11: Ortega shifts through a rear hand feint to step into range. Lopes proactively ducks outside of it and gets his head in close. He throws a sticky hook into a collar, and holds Ortega’s head in position to throw the right straight.

V12: On both instances of Ortega throwing his jab, Lopes hops back out of range on a straight line.

V13: Lopes fakes an entry by dropping his level slightly which prompts a rear hand from Ortega. Rather than committing to his step-in, Lopes throws a left hook over the straight,

Backing out of range on straight lines might be Lopes’ largest hurdle to beating the men on top (V14). I’ve mentioned my gripe with this before, but have not fully articulated it. At the foundational level, backing out of range is good simply because you are not getting hit.

Not getting hit »»» Getting hit

Glad we can agree on that.

However, this is simply the first order effect of backing out of range. The problems come when this is an innate defensive reaction. This is essentially water on the spark of Lopes’ offensive dynamite. Being a pretty talented counter-puncher, Lopes does not have the aforementioned movement to craftily setup his striking. Half the time Ortega came in with punches Lopes backed away, forcing him to reset and wait again for Ortega to come in. Against such proficient feinters in Holloway, Volk, and Topuria, Lopes’ offense could be completely negated by a combination of effective jabbing and feints. To land his powerful punches, he needs to stay in range to do so.

The other problem with backing up is that you eventually run into the cage perimeter. Despite Joe Rogan’s deepest wishes, fighting will always have a border and the sport is better for it. Lopes could easily be put in the spin cycle of being forced to reset and backing up until he meets the cage where his options are limited. Lopes showed flashes of lateral movement both defensively (V15) and offensively (V16) and I would be surprised to see it become a consistent part of his approach. Unfortunately, Holloway, Volkanovski, and Topuria are all incredible pressure fighters in different fonts.

Rather than back away, Lopes can try to stick to forcing more desperate entries with his kicking, and utilizing his surprisingly adept head movement to find his counter shots when they enter punching range.

V14: Twice when Ortega throws his jab hand does Lopes back straight out of range. On Ortega’s third attempt to jab and pivot towards Lopes’ right hand does he throw the cross counter over the top while dipping inside.

V15: Lopes retreats on a slight angle after throwing his left hand.

V16: Lopes squares his stance while throwing which puts him in a better position to pressure Ortega to the cage. While Ortega is against the cage, he doesn’t follow but instead takes small steps to cut off his intended escape route.

Diego Lopes’ head movement came as a bit of a surprise this fight. In a sport where so many are reluctant to dip and slip because of kicks, Lopes has a found a lane to stay safe with integrated defense. Slipping while punching allows you to stay offensive and keep your head off the center line at the same time. Look at Lopes in contrast to Ortega in V17. Ortega is throwing straight punches while circling, but is caught by every one of Lopes’ punches while his own offense is neutered by the head movement. The difference is that Ortega’s head never moves off the center line, making him a sucker for Lopes’ counter shots.

While Lopes chose to back out of range half the time, the other half he entered the pocket and exchanged. There is a risk with relying on head movement (V19). It can become predictable and makes you a sucker for high kicks, which is why Lopes would be well-advised to use it reactively rather than proactively. Force the opponent to enter range and punish them for it (V18).

Is this course of action infallible? Certainly not. Relying on head movement and counters when in punching range both relies on and accentuates Lopes’ physical gifts: power and timing. This approach is based on skills he has shown in beating Ortega. He can certainly get countered and baited into overcommitting with this approach, and he could certainly improve his footwork.

This can be said of most fighters.

Simplifying his approach comes with risk, but also puts him in the best position to score a knockout or hurt his opponent enough to find an opportune submission. He is a fast starter and anything can happen in a fight.

V17: Though it looks like they are exchanging evenly, Lopes is dipping inside and outside all of Ortega’s punches, while his own punches slip through to hit the mark. This movement also provides some extra momentum and power to his shots as well.

V18: Ortega and Lopes paw lead hands in the open stance out of range. Ortega steps into range with a 1-2. Lopes dips outside of Ortega’s rear hand to land a right hook to the open body and a left hook over the top. Even when blocked Lopes’ punches are strong enough to move Ortega around the ring.

V19: Lopes’ head proactive / offensive head movement while on the back foot is much more predictable. A patient Ortega simply watches and waits to catch his slips with the jab.

In his current state, even this might not be enough to beat the men who rule over featherweight. Distilling his striking and focusing on finding transitional offense would be the key factor to his success. I would love to see him improve, and look forward to a fight with either Max Holloway, Ilia Topuria, or Alexander Volkanovski with this tailored approach. Again, none of this involved adding any tools he does not have. The only difference is in choosing when to use them.

How do you see Lopes faring agains these men? Based on what you’ve seen, is there anything I missed?

Let me know by commenting down below, or on Twitter. Thank you as always for the support~

-Kick