Merab vs. Umar: Same Hats, Different Font

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov have a Caucus battle at UFC 311

Thank God I didn’t write about Islam vs. Arman!

On on hand, I knew everybody would be covering it. On the other, I felt like this fight is a little hard to pin down stylistically due to Merab’s unique attributes, and that people are underrating his ability based on his pre-fight behavior. I’ve seen it work both ways, all that matters is what happens when the cage doors are closed.

Umar Nurmagomedov splashed on the scene by having a competitive but clear win against one of my favorite fighters, and one of the smartest in the sport, Corey Sandhagen. I analyzed how Sandhagen could take advantage of some of Umar’s deficiencies here:

Instead, Umar came out looking much more poised in the striking, aided by his potent takedown game. He looked like a genuine contender at Bantamweight.

Merab Dvalishvili won the Bantamweight title off of Sean O’Malley in a clear but tepid fight at (The) Sphere. He had a tad more composure and a little less activity, which still meant that he was more active than any other man on the roster.

Despite Dvalishvili having stormed through the Bantamweight division, Umar Nurmagomedov is sitting at a -270 favorite in the betting odds. This seems steep. Technically this might have some merit, but it is in analyzing the ever elusive “X-Factors” of this fight that the water grows murky.

Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.

Same Strats

Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov both centralize their game plans around their single leg takedowns in open space. You will see them find blast doubles, duck unders, and other variations when the opportunity presents itself, but it is the single that they love. From the single-leg, there are 3 options in which to proceed:

1. Takedown Completion

2. The Back Body Lock (BBL🍑)

3. Transitional Work

Though these are 3 separate outcomes from the single-leg, they all interconnect into an intricate web in practice.

Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.

They share this general strategy but their execution looks vastly different, as their goals differ. Nurmagomedov is a potent submission artist, so he ultimately wants to obtain back control and sink in a rear-naked choke (V1, 6 of his 18 wins come by this submission). Dvalishvili spends almost no time looking for submissions. Even when it looks like it, he is utilizing the position for control (V2). This control is not the smothering top control of someone like Islam Makhachev, as Dvalishvili is quite loose on top. He lets the opponent build up to the turtle and quad pod where he can throw punches, knees to the body and legs, and strike the head on the break (V3). He stays close enough to blanket you, but provides just enough space to constantly throw strikes (V4). As long as he is occupying his opponent with something, he knows that they cannot retaliate forever and will slow down.

V1

V2

V3

V4

If Dvalishvili can be considered slick in any area, it would be his transitional offense. He tends to look quite wooden when striking, and the offense from control positions is quite meat and potatoes. As he is always looking to occupy the opponent’s attention with offense, he ends up finding opportune moments to score (V5) and even finds unorthodox openings (V6). Its not always pretty, but it is certainly effective. Nurmagomedov is no slouch in this department either (V7), but he has not had to contend with a grappler as incessant as the Bantamweight champion.

V5

V6

V7

The Central Question

Can Umar Nurmagomedov survive the unending onslaught of Merab Dvalishvili?

The entire fight centers around this question. When looking at their grappling games, I am sure that Nurmagomedov can defend the takedown attempts of Dvalishvili. He might even catch him with a good submission attempt early. He consistently trains with the greatest MMA grapplers in the world. This is not the issue. Dvalishvili’s takedowns can be defended. In fact, he does not even need to complete one. He simply needs to keep shooting, and you cannot attack. Dvalishvili’s attempts are meant to occupy your time and find cheeky openings for his strikes. The sheer pace of his attack, consistently over five rounds, is astounding. There is no opponent who has explicitly replicated this in Nurmagomedov’s career, let alone anyone who hasn’t faced “The Machine”.

Nurmagomedov does have two tactics that might quell the Georgian storm:

1. The Jab

2. Distance Management

Nurmagomedov’s striking game is largely composed of his kicks. As a grappler unafraid of the takedown, he stays out of punching range and maintains it with the teep. He will stay busy with leg kicks but looks for power shots with his surprisingly dextrous lead leg (V8). Despite being such an active kicker, Nurmagomedov is not an all out pressure fighter. He skirts around the edges of the cage, kicking at the opponent until they try to wade into punching range. Should they make it there, they will either miss, be met with a reactive takedown or the jab.

Nurmagomedov’s cage positioning and range maintenance have kept him relatively unscathed in his UFC career. Before the Sandhagen fight, he was only hit with ~14 significant strikes, and Sandhagen himself was having trouble finding the mark. His range maintenance allows him more time to react to a charging opponent, and is all too ready to begin circling before his back ever meets the cage (V9). He is not an easy fighter to pressure as he is actually aware of his own positioning. His jab slots nicely into the role of measuring distance (V10). In the open stance, he will often reach out to touch the lead hand. Should they opponent wade into range, he can either counter their entry with a blistering combination (V10), or shoot out the jab (V11).

Nurmagomedov might not be able to handle The Machine over 5, but he might not need to. His teep, positioning, and jab all act as significant barriers of entry for Dvalishvili to overcome. He is the forward moving juggernaut that simply does not stop, but what if he can never make it to the mark? He will eventually, I’m sure, but Nurmagomedov can make him work hard enough with these tools that he can find his own openings.

V8

V9

V10

V11

Strategic Machine

Nurmagomedov’s striking style and cage awareness will be very difficult to overcome, but Dvalishvili is quite malleable with one of the premier strategic minds in MMA in his corner: Ray Longo. Nurmagomedov’s exploitable tendencies are his aforementioned kicks and movement. Dvalishvili is nothing if not opportune, and I can only see Nurmagomedov’s constant kicking attack as an opening for Dvalishvili to grab the leg and make him work (V12). The Dagestani can defend and even counter, but Merab can simply force him to start working at a torrid pace as early as possible. Dissuade the kicks and force up-close action.

Dvalishvili is not a technically brilliant striker, but he is enthusiastic and tactically quite smart. Nurmagomedov showed some of the better kick defense I’ve seen in MMA against Sandhagen, but in that same fight was quite susceptible to the leg kick when circling on the outside of range (V13). Should Dvalishvili land a few of these very clean, that could hinder Nurmagomedov enough to dampen his kicking and movement.

V12

V13

Both men have quite the challenges to surmount. Whoever wins the battle between the pressure and distance management will likely forge ahead to win the entire fight. I am incredibly excited to see these two sides of the same coin clash. Will the explosive prodigal son take his place on the throne, or will the reigning Georgian king show us all why cardio is the ultimate weapon? (hint: it still is either way, go do your HIIT RIGHT NOW!)

Enjoy, and let me know what you think below.

Thank you as always for the support.