Mirror Matches of UFC 298

Volkanovski, Topuria, Cejudo, Merab

After over a month of drivel, the UFC comes back with fanfare this Saturday night with an exceptional fight card that I will be watching with Thick and one of our buddies. The entire main card is enticing with standout matches featuring Mackenzie Dern, Amanda Lemos, and Rinya Nakamura on the undercard.

Two that stood out to me were the mirror matches of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria and Henry Cejudo vs. Merab Dvalishvilli. By mirror matches I do not mean that they have the exact same styles, rather, similar styles and body types for their respective divisions. In fact, all men are shorter than average in their weight class, with the Featherweights exhibiting a punishing standing and ground game, and the Bantamweights known for their wrestling acumen.

When assessing skills and relevance these are the most interesting fights on the card. I decided to take a look at how each of these men faced opponents with a similar stature:

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chad Mendes: Volk takes on a stocky, strong grappler with big power. (Ilia is a more crafty boxer than Mendes)

Ilia Topuria vs. Josh Emmett: Easily Ilia’s most impressive performance. Emmett is essentially a strong overhand right with incredible blitzing speed, but Ilia has not faced anyone with Volk’s skillset. Emmett is a similar height to the champion.

Henry Cejudo vs. Demetrious Johnson: Though at Flyweight, Cejudo had to handle one of the greatest fighters of all time and Merab himself is not gigantic for 135. Upon rewatch it looks like Vejudo lost, but he was able to successfully wrestle an incredible grappler.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Ricky Simon: Merab had to wrestle a squat fighter with outstanding wrestling. Though Simon is not nearly the strategic savant that Cejudo is, the grappling is the most interesting aspect of this matchup to me since Merab is assured to force the issue.

Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.

Jabs & Low Kicks

The jab is the foundation of a great striking game. Volkanovski and Topuria both have incredibly active jabs set as the bedrock of their fighting style. With Volkanovski’s heavy emphasis on feinting he use sthe threat of the jab to force his opponent back, trap their hands, and strike over the top of their guard.

The parry —> jab is a great move to play with your opponent’s expectations. Make them think you want to fight hands, and rather than fully retract, throw the jab over to hit them clean. This occupies the powerful rear hand of his opponent when in the closed stance, and Vokanovski steps to the outside of the rear hand, eliminating the cross counter threat from Mendes.

Volkanovski’s jab is more effective when used between his feints. Volkanovski consistently shows his rear hand and torques his hips to force defensive reactions from Chad Mendes. Feinting if only effective if there are real threats interspersed between the “fake” ones, so Volkanovski ensures to jab Mendes between his feints. Volkanovski’s insistence on the jab keeps him far enough away when Mendes decides to return, as well as a path to punch the body and enter the clinch while Mendes’ hands are high.

The jab is the Swiss army knife of strikes when utilized to its full potential. A well-placed jab as an opponent is rushing forward is the perfect tool to stifle their onslaught. I suspect this will come in handy against a puncher as excitable as Ilia Topuria.

Topuria learned to love his jab during his fight with Josh Emmett. While he was a competent boxer in his previous fights, Topuria’s insistence on fighting and defending from mid-range against a power puncher only worked because it was predicated on his use of the jab.

Topuria’s jab propogated the majority of his significant offense. Early in the fight Emmett attempted to jab with Topuria but was instead met with a thudding cross-counter.

This cross-counter comes easier when the opponent is wholly committed to boxing. Alexander Volkanovski is not so one-note as Josh Emmett. Volkanovski’s striking is special because he is often able to keep an opponent guessing. In utilizing his low kick in conjunction with his jab he creates a storm of questions that leaves his opponent paralyzed, questioning what strike will come next.

The most synergistic use of the two weapons is by throwing a jab and inside low kick at the same time. In stepping up with the rear foot while jabbing Volkanovski can mask the low kick. He is not worried about landing the jab, rather using it to obscure Mendes’ vision and off balance him with the low kick.

After he has forced his opponent to guess and damaged them, the low kick is made more effective. Volkanovski is able to crush Mendes’ stance and force him to stumble around the cage to regain it. These moments are where Volkanovski can seize the momentum.

Topuria himself is not the most active low kicker. It was effective but rare in his performance against Emmett. Volkanovski’s use of the outside low kick will often coerce his opponent into using the very same technique. Volkanovski jabs after he lands his own, preemptively expecting the return from his opponent.

Volkanovski’s low-kicking game bodes well for his chances against the Georgian upstart. The pillar of Topuria’s defense against Emmett was the shoulder roll. The shoulder roll is most famously used by Floyd Mayweather, and I broke it down extensively in my study of Crawford’s recent performance against Errol Spence:

This was an optimal strategy against the heavy swings of Emmett. Topuria rarely got hit clean because Emmett was either hitting air or shoulder. This strategy is beautiful for defending punches but is contingent upon a strong base. Notice how vulnerable his lead leg is to kicks. The calf is facing out rather than towards Josh Emmett. Defending a leg kick involves turning the shin out or hinging at the knee so it misses entirely. When the shin is turned in, defending a kick becomes almost impossible.

Though his attempts were few and far between Josh Emmett did force Ilia to shoulder roll, landing a few calf kicks of his own. Topuria was so focused on defending punches that the shoulder roll put him at a greater risk of being off-balanced with a leg kick. Emmett did not capitalize on Topuria’s broken stance but Volkanovski would be sure to.

Ilia’s primary reaction to being kicked out of his stance is to return with a hard counter. This worked against Emmett who simply stayed put and raised his guard. Volkanovski is always LOOKING for a reaction after he kicks his opponents. He is expecting the opponent to do something and counter off of it. Topuria would be wise to develop some form of defense against the low kicks, simply powering through them might work but is not reliable.

Topuria has stated openly how he and his brother watch film on Canelo to improve their boxing. I have little doubt that he will be prepared for some of the threats provided by Volkanovski, but his use of the shoulder roll compounded with Volkanovski’s feint and kicking game will be a hard habit to game plan around.

High Kicks

The short stature of each fighter means that high kicks will be an attractive offensive tool. Both have been devastated by high kicks, Volk against Islam and Topuria against Jai Herbert.

Topuria himself has never thrown a head kick in his UFC career but Volk has shown it to be a weapon of choice when fighting someone of a similar stature. Volk is one of the better strategic kickers in the sport today and will no doubt slot the high kick as an option to be utilized with his body and low kicks.

Only once he has established the pronged threat of the low and body kicks does he choose to throw a head kick on Chad Mendes.

Even Josh Emmett, not known at all for his kicking game, attempted a head kick on Ilia Topuria. Not the cleanest of kicks but a more technically proficient kick certainly could have done some damage.

Though I don’t suspect it to play a large part in the fight, it is an option that both fighters can use to their advantage since they are of a similar stature. Makhachev just used that pronged kicking threat in order to land a head kick KO on Volkanovski, so either man might be inspired by that performance.

Defensive Liabilities

A notable criticism throughout Ilia Topuria’s career was his tendency to over swing. One of the most impressive aspects of his performance against Josh Emmett was the fact that his punching was more considered and built upon a solid defensive framework. This over swinging is not completely gone, as most habits never fully leave.

Ilia largely fought behind his jab but got excited as he extended his combinations. In the above sequence his left hook almost carries him off of his feet.

Ilia’s left hook at the end of his combination seems to be a particular weakness in this sense. Powerful, but he overthrows it almost every time.

As is the story with these men, Emmett did not capitalize upon Ilia’s over swinging. Volkanovski is a more opportune fighter with a nice lead hook, his constant feinting will no doubt be able to goad more counter opportunities from the Georgian.

This matchup is incredibly enticing and made more interesting by that fact the Volkanovski is facing a KO loss in his last fight and the dreaded “35+ curse”. Topuria is certainly the man with momentum on his side. Many are comparing his rise to Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo with truly interesting comparisons: https://x.com/ClipsetWoat/status/1757912138168021071?s=20

Volkanovski is no normal fighter though. He is perhaps the most skilled fighter I have ever seen compete in the sport of mixed martial arts. I have not seen Topuria consistently deal with a consistent kicking threat like Volkanovski and his current style leaves him particularly vulnerable to low kicks. Volkanovski is no slouch in the pocket but Topuria might be able to ding him there. The grappling could be interesting but both men are so strong there I have no idea how that might look.

Everywhere I look I see Volk providing the questions and Topuria needing to come with answers, and a great many of them. Topuria is young, and can certainly improve, but we will need to see a cogent game plan to deal with Volkanovski’s natural style. One way or another I am sure the result will be fantastic.

Merab vs. Triple C

Merab vs. Cejudo is sure to be one of the most entertaining grappling fights on the card. Fluffy Hernandez might compete, but these men seem too well-matched on paper for the wrestling scrambles to be anything less than marvelous. Though many fights between grapplers can devolve into something of a weird kickboxing match, Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili is a man who forces his grappling upon anyone and everyone. How will Cejudo hold up against the inhuman cardio of his opponent?

Against Johnson Cejudo was able to maintain his balance against the single leg by fighting for his under and over hooks to break the grip around his leg. If you are not constantly moving the man and chaining attacks after a single-leg attempt, Cejudo will get the read, force you to the fence, and break your grip. He turns what should be a worrying position into an advantageous one.

If the opportunity presents itself Cejudo will of course grab a single leg takedown himself. Given how apt Merab is to push forward on his opponents I know he will look to leverage some transitional offense off of the single leg. Grab the leg with some commitment, and release to throw a punch as the opponent is sprawling out. Given Cejudo’s intelligent approach to fighting I can see this being a key against Merab, who favors transitional offense himself.

The standout of Cejudo’s takedown game is the inside trip. What makes it such a versatile move is that he does not need to complete a lower body takedown to accomplish his best technique. Cejudo will often get stuffed when shooting for the legs, only to stand up into an upper body clinch.

From a traditional over-under position Cejudo will drive to forward and out, hooking his opponent’s lead leg to take out their base and bring them down.Considering he was able to execute this trip on someone of DJ’s stature, I see no reason other than Merab’s bulk that Cejudo cannot do the same to him.

When Cejudo gets in a flow his wrestling is lovely. Unlike Johnson’s single leg attempt early in the fight, Cejudo is constantly transitioning between positions, posting off DJ’s shoulder with a free hand to bring him down, and following him once he has brought him to the ground.

Merab might be considered an even more opportune grappler than Cejudo. Using an overthrown punch to enter the legs, get stifled, and acquire an ankle pick to take Simon’s back, Merab is just as transitionally proficient as Triple C.

Once Merab does grab hold he is incredibly sticky and will continue to mat return you in increasingly entertaining ways. Cejudo is persistent but will often release a hold upon completion or break away to strike. Merab is much more insistent, striking immediately off the break or throwing his opponents high to make his mat returns count. Merab is ALWAYS working.

He can truly scramble with the best. Merab’s low ankle pick forces an opponent to turn their back to limp leg. Merab seizes the moment by grabbing the back where he can continue to throw. Working off the single-leg provides the base of Merab’s grappling game.

Cejudo’s go-to: Inside Trip

Merab’s go-to: Single-Leg to Back

Two incredibly competent fighters with completely different ways in which they approach the game. Merab’s relentless pace will be the deciding factor. Henry Cejudo has ample opportunity to damage Merab early, his aggression can lead to recklessness. Merab has and likely will weather this storm. Both men have beautiful transitional offense, striking while grappling and off the break, but Cejudo is more apt to look for significant moments that he has planned for. Merab is looking for anything and everything.

Cejudo might be the more considered fighter but I expect him to wear out in the scrambles and be overtaken in transitional offense by around the third. Merab’s pace and cardio are sure to wear out the the more credentialed wrestler and fighter if Cejudo cannot spark him early.

This card is a true treat for fans of fighting. If you haven’t yet, check out my article on Fluffy Hernandez’s style, as he opens the main card:

As always thank you for the support, train hard, and enjoy the fights. Blessed.

-Kick