I’m pumped as hell for this fight, so lets just dive right in.
Disclaimer: The video clips included in this article are not owned by the author. They are included for educational purposes only to illustrate key moments in the fighter’s career and demonstrate aspects of mixed martial arts techniques and strategies. All rights to the video content belong to their respective owners.
Who is Umar Nurmagomedov?
The cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov has made a name for himself against the lower/middle-tier talent of the talent-rich bantamweight division. His come-up has been surprising only in that his style shows a stark contrast to his teammates Khabib and Islam. Where they are more active boxers always looking to bring the fight to the mat and enforce their wrestling, Nurmagomedov is much more comfortable kicking from range and wrestling when the opportunity presents itself (V1).
V1: Nurmagomedov lifts his lead knee to keep Barcelos aware of the front kick, and switches from southpaw to orthodox as Barcelos circles to his right. From the closed-stance he throws the step-up high kick with the lead leg, and immediately follows-up with a leg kick. Nurmagomedov bounces back and throws the front kick and some retreating jabs as Barcelos tries to follow-up.
The basis of Nurmagomedov’s game is to maintain range while kicking and even use kicks as counters. Its unorthodox in this way. His wrestling pedigree affords him the comfort to kick so frequently without fear of being taken down, and his kicking is made dangerous by his speed and hip flexibility. He focuses on fully committed front kicks to dissuade pressure and maintain range (V2, V4), and uses his oft-remarked upon question mark kick to counter the opponent as they wade back into range (V2, V3). His question mark kick is unquestionably a dangerous weapon but it rarely lands with authority. It maintains its presence as a weapon to be aware of that makes pressuring him more difficult.
He prefers fighting from southpaw, but will often shift while advancing or moving laterally to switch stances. His stance switching is not subtle or as schooled as Sandhagen’s but it can create tricky situations that his opponents are not used to, like high kicking into the closed side (V5). The more nuanced way that Nurmagomedov kicks into the closed side is with his step-up kicking (V1). In that sequence, Nurmagomedov actually switches to orthodox to keep the open-stance matchup, but throw a step-up high kick into the closed side. While this is seen as less effective because opponent’s can simply turn away so it hits their shoulders and back, his step up is so fast that it has more speed that a rear leg kick and often less tell. Opponents are often not prepared for such a committed attack into the closed side, and Nurmagomedov’s athleticism makes it that much more effective.
V2: Nurmagomedov pushes Kelleher away with a strong front kick, checks an incoming leg kick and punches Kelleher off the check. He then throws his signature question mark kick on the closed side which doesn’t land, but gets Kelleher to back off.
V3: Nurmagomedov’s question mark kick is now thrown into the open side as Kelleher tries to close distance, but doesn’t do much as it hits Kelleher’s hands and he turns away.
V4: Nurmagomedov throws a strong, committed front kick that backs Barcelos off.
V5: Nurmagomedov follows Morozov’s retreat by shifting to orthodox while throwing a rear straight, and a rear high kick over the top of the shoulder. As he is kicking into the closed-side, it has less a chance of making vital contact but could surprise Morozov.
Nurmagomedov’s kicking is what he does most often, but grappling is premier aspect of his game. He is able to open routes to the back following opportunistic takedowns, and either control or finish from there (V8). Despite this he has built a cogent transitional offense throughout his recent run. He has shown multiple instances of striking on the stand-up and out of takedowns and clinch breaks (V6, V7), and getting takedowns off of exchanges that convince the opponent he wants to strike (V9). His most high profile win against Raoni Barcelos came by following a stepping knee with a short hook on the same side (V11), something he has used in the past to good effect (V10). Nurmagomedov’s grappling and kicking will be most prevalent, but I expect his transitional offense to have great success in moments against Sandhagen and all of his future opponents. It and cage-wrestling are the most unique aspects of MMA, and fighters that focus on upping their skills in these areas will soar past their contemporaries. See ‘Fluffy Hernandez’ and Diego Lopes as some of the most effective fighters utilizing transitional offense.
V6: Kelleher rushes into range Nurmagomedov’s back against the cage, but is met the men dropping levels onto his hips. Nurmagomedov isolates the leg, and uses his other arms to post on the hip and “Run the pipe” from his knees to bring Kelleher onto his hip. Kelleher stands up with a good overhook but Nurmagomedov punches and pushes him back to the cage.
V7: Morozov steps in with a wide left hook, giving Nurmagomedov and easy entry to grab the lead leg. Morozov starts to slip out but Nurmagomedov maintains a tight grip on the ankle, dropping it to kick the back of Morozov’s leg, which is often less conditioned than the front.
V8: Morozov attempts to get up from half-guard. Nurmagomedov jumps on the posting arm with the Dagestani handcuff while driving forward. Morozov comes up to his knees but Nurmagomedov maintains the handcuff, giving him an easy route to the back.
V9: Nurmagomedov steps into a stiff jab that prompts a wild rear hand from Almakhan. Nurmagomedov had already started to change levels after jabbing and gets tight on the legs from his knees. Nurmagomedov shelves him to a hip from here and is able to secure control.
V10: Nurmagomedov throws a rear knee as Morozov steps in with a jab to the body. His knee ends up hitting Morozov’s jabbing arm, so he throws a quick rear hand over the top of the same arm, just clipping him.
V11: The best example of Nurmagomedov’s transitional work, and essentially the same as the sequence shown in (V10), except in the open-stance. Nurmagomedov throws a rear knee, stepping through into the orthodox stance as Barcelos tries to push off.
Enter Sandman
Now comes the more well-known commodity, Cory Sandhagen, who is one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. He has accomplished sensational wins and had competitive fights with all but one of the top talent present at bantamweight. When assessing a fight against Nurmagomedov, the loss to Sterling becomes worrying given the rear naked choke is his most prevalent finish. Sandhagen has no doubt improved as a wrestler, and I doubt he will concede position like he used to (V12, V13), but that vulnerability can still be exploited.
V12: Sterling backs Sandhagen to the cage with almost no resistance. Sandhagen does not introduce any lateral movement until his back is already on the cage. With forward movement and some kicks, Sterling has not problem establishing control of the center.
V13: Sandhagen makes the mistake of kicking a grappler with his back to the fence. Sterling takes advantage of this by grabbing the leg and pushing Sandhagen to the fence to begin cage-grappling.
While Sandhagen had a tendency to drop to the back foot in some fights (even in the one below against Dillashaw, which worked well there), he has become more of an offensive counter-puncher. Sandhagen opts to stay in the opponent’s face by throwing a variety of non-committal punches to draw out reactions, and exploit said reactions with hard shots (V14). Tempo changing punches are a perfect way to alter an opponent’s expectations and assert your offense despite a power discrepancy.
V14: Sandhagen double jabs to take note of Dillashaw’s head movement in response. He backs out of range and shifts through on a double jab again. Dillashaw repeats his defensive manuever shown previously, dipping outside the jab and back onto the center line. As his head returns to center, Sandhagen shifts through on a rear left hand that catches Dillashaw. He doubles up on it, throws the rear hand, and knocks Dillashaw down with the left hook as his head comes back up.
If you are not aware of Sandhagen’s game, one thing should stick out when watching him: he is always switching stances. While Nurmagomedov would often switch quite obviously, Sandhagen’s switches are hidden between strikes and while advancing on opponent’s. In hiding them his hitting becomes much more unpredictable and he is the one controlling the stance matchup, forcing his opponent to react to him (V14). In establishing himself as the actor and his opponent as the reactor, Sandhagen even finds himself getting the upper hand while on defense (V15).
V15: Sandhagen jabs, but does not fully contract the arm to keep his fist in Song’s face. Song throws a long left hook, which Sandhagen evades by stepping back into southpaw and jabbing with the new lead hand. Song now shifts through a right hook, prompting to step back again. With his feet rapidly approaching the black“circle (octagon) of death” , Sandhagen steps out on a 90 degree angle back to orthodox, and perfectly catches Song with a jab on the dominant angle. He can now circle back to the center.
Sandhagen’s striking is refined, tricky, and all predicated on his switching. He is always looking to create and exploit his opponent’s habits, while his opponent is more a one-note kicking machine. They do share a love of transitional offense however. Sandhagen’s own combinations from the clinch, initiated by a flying knee (V16), and dozens of instances elbowing Song off of takedown attempts are illustrative of this. Sandhagen’s improvements in his wrestling have allowed him to create more set-ups for his striking and develop a more coherent MMA style. With an improved style, how can this elite fighter take out the young up and comer?
V16: Sandhagen circles with his back against the cage, and throws a crisp jumping knee just as Dillashaw switches stances. He falls into the clinch from here and ensures to get his head low, slip out his overhook while maintaining contact, and throw a short left hook. This bothers Dillashaw as he simply puts up the double forearms guard, and Sandhagen continues with a combination.
Adding to the O
Defense is a fighter’s foundation. There are fighters who rely on being overwhelming offensive dynamos (Charles Oliveira), but those with the most longevity are often those who have mastered being defensively sound (Jose Aldo). Sandhagen himself is on the upper end of defensively competent fighters in a sport where the bar is very low. In considering a fight with Umar Nurmagomedov, you have to be ready for his kicks. In opponents who are known to kick, Sandhagen has shown to be more proactive in defending them (V17) despite a lack of leg kick defense in the Yan fight.
V17: Sandhagen throws an inside leg kick in the open-stance, and keeps a light lead foot to preemptively defend a return from Vera.
Nurmagomedov’s can be overwhelmed while kicking off the back foot (V18). If Sandhagen can maintain pressure and utilize some simple kicking defense, he can create opportunities to score damaging shots (V19). If Nurmagomedov mounts a dedicated low-kicking attack, he will be more than happy to switch stances from this to find new looks as well (V20).
V18: Nurmagomedov kicks while retreating from Maness’ punches. Maness catches the leg and punches with his free hand, following up with his rear after dropping the leg. This has also backed Nurmagomedov to the cage.
V19: Dillashaw throws an open-side body kick, which is easily caught with a circling defense. Sandhagen drops the kick, backs away, and slides out range of a leg kick.
V20: Sandhagen dances around Vera while switching stances. When Vera throws a step-up inside leg kick, he defends by switching back to orthodox and immediately engaging in the lead hand battle from the open-stance.
Sandhagen has the opportunity to create tricky openings and overwhelm Nurmagomedov, but his kicking defense in singular moments has left something to be desired. Other than the aforementioned Yan fight, he has a tendency to use single-arm blocking against body and high kicks (V21-22). Single-arm blocking is not reliable. One arm can often get broken when hit right and a strong enough kick will crash straight through this guard.
I do expect Sandhagen to be prepared for this eventuality though. Given some of Nurmagomedov’s striking tendencies and willingness to back up on straight lines, I expect him to be much more offensively focused in this fight.
V21: Sandhagen maintains an active jab in front of Song’s face. Song steps up with a body kick to the open side that Sandhagen defends by moving away, blocking with the near arm, and trying to catch with the far arm.
V22: Sandhagen leaves a bit to be desired regarding his head kick defense, using only a single arm to block. He returns fire with an uppercut and rear hook (he switched stances while retreating) to take the initiative.
Nurmagomedov does not get hit often. His striking game is predicated upon staying as far out of range as possible, and when he is grappling he is on top of you or on your back. He is not mist though, he can be hit reliably. The most consistent strikes landed on Nurmagomedov are punches throws while he kicks. Nurmagomedov is vulnerable here. He kicks often, and his lever arm goes down so there is not guard to speak of. He is leaning away while kicking, but this lean while on one leg makes him more vulnerable to being bundled over.
He is fast, but not so fast that he can’t be caught over the top (V23). While Maness is the closes physical analogue to Sandhagen in Nurmagomedov’s career, Cory should look towards Almakhan’s performance for the most effective work. He was able to deflect kicks and throw, and follow Nurmagomedov’s sloppy retreat (V24). Most notably, Almakhan handed Nurmagomedov a surprising knockdown by throwing an overhand during one of his more obvious stance switches (V25). Sandhagen showed he can exploit a kicking opponent in the early rounds against Petr Yan. He made up for his shoddy defense by punching before Yan could return to stance (V26), and kicking the standing leg before Yan’s regained stance (V27). While another knockdown is unlikely, Sandhagen can no doubt hit with authority and off-balance him from here.
V23: Maness throws the rear hand as Nurmagomedov throws the body kick. Nurmagomedov promptly throws his own hook but the straight was still able to land without issue.
V24: Nurmagomedov throws a kick into the closed side which Almakhan is able to deflect by pushing off the knee. Almakhan had already been stepping into range as Nurmagomedov threw, and his rear hand comes over the top of the lever arm to tap him on the temple while he retreats.
V25: Nurmagomedov steps forward into southpaw, which he likely used as a kicking feint. Almakhan immediately throws an overhand right that perfectly clips Nurmagomedov on the temple to drop him.
V26: Yan stalks Sandhagen and throws a leg kick the moment Sandhagen switches stances. Before Yan can return to his stance, Sandhagen places a perfect left straight on his nose.
V27: Sandhagen retreats from Yan’s pressure, switching stances as he does so. He switches to southpaw (on the camera angle change) to stand his ground, and Yan immediately throws a body kick. Sandhagen quickly counters by throwing an inside leg kick. It hits bone, but off-balances Yan enough to leave him floundering for a moment.
Umar Nurmagomedov is equipped with a dangerous kicking game that is not matched by his boxing. His one size fits all counter punch is the lead right hook (V28) and he is quite susceptible to being backed up by the jab (V29, V30). Unfortunately for him, Cory Sandhagen has one of the best jabs in MMA. His jab is versatile, maintains distance, and sets up the majority of his more significant offense (V31). Sandhagen will rarely throw a jab in isolation. If he is standing in the range to exchange, the jab will be doubled up on to get the opponent’s head moving (V14, V32), or coerce them into over-committing on a counter, like Nurmagomedov does in (V28).
Sandhagen explains his other uses for the double jab here: Cory Explain His Double-Jab. More often than not, an opponent met with being jabbed multiple times will simply move backward (V33). Nurmagomedov himself is not a master of footwork, and moves backwards to any sort of committed forward motion from his adversaries (V29, V30). Though the threat of the takedown is there while moving forward on him, he kicks more often than not, making his retreat that much more exploitable. Sandhagen is great at pivoting and moving laterally while on the defensive himself, which will be pertinent to not get backed up on the fence should he find himself on the back foot.
V28: Maness steps to the outside with a jab/ Nurmagomedov responds with an arcing lead hook, that Maness evades by calmly stepping backwards.
V29: Maness throws a jab that backs Nurmagomedov up. He responds by stepping and leaning back while throwing a right hook counter that is stifled by Maness’ own rear straight.
V30: Maness feints the jab and throws an arcing rear hand over the guard, which Nurmagomedov again responds to by throwing a leaning right hook on the retreat. While it is able to land, it more importantly allows the Dagestani to initiate a clinch that Maness tries to punch out of. Once Maness settles into grappling, Nurmagomedov gets an inside trip to bring the fight to the ground.
V31: Sandhagen jabs and follows Dillashaw around the perimeter. From southpaw, he throws a shifting rear hand that coerces a shifting jab and lead hook out of Dillashaw. Sandhagen’s jab gives ensures he is a safe distance from receiving damage. Dillashaw tries to regain control by throwing a jab, which is promptly countered by an rear straight counter inside the punch.
V32: Sandhagen throws a lazy left hook to condition Song to raise a high guard, and throw a strong hook to the body afterwards. Sandhagen immediately follows up with a triple jab. The first lands through the porous guard, and the next two force head movement from Song. Sandhagen’s follow-up shifting rear straight is committed but fails to land on a still moving Song.
V33: Yan throws a low kick as Sandhagen switches stances to jab. Sandhagen misses the follow-up straight to counter, but follows Yan with a shifting rear straight. Sandhagen then feints a step-in to raise Yan’s guard, and throws two left hooks while pivoting to the outside of Yan’s lead foot.
The Hole
As remarked earlier, Sandhagen certainly still has a vulnerability to giving up his back when getting up from the bottom (V34). Nurmagomedov’s potency on the back is worrying. If he can maintain offense from the bottom and invert on the legs to stand up (V35), he would have a less reliable but safer way of standing. He is always throwing punches and elbows off of his back to facilitate these scrambles. This is a good sign should he find himself under the Dagestani. Though he wants to maintain a front foot heavy performance, his defense from the back body lock while pressed against the cage is another sign in his favor. Nurmagomedov jumps to the back quick, but maintaining a staunch 2-on-1 could save him from getting finished (V36).
V34: Sandhagen has an open guard from the bottom, and begins pushing off of Song’s hips while he posts on his arm. He quad pods to stand-up, but is eventually taken back ti the ground when Song takes a hold of the leg a-la the Suloev Stretch.
V35: Sandhagen is getting punches from bottom position but maintains a pseudo knee shield position, pushing against Yan with his shin as he brings a hand under Yan’s hamstring. He continues to push and move Yan with his leg until he can bring Yan’s foot to his shoulder, inverting under him. As Sandhagen builds a base, he sneaks behind Yan while elevating the leg to bring Yan’s head to the floor. He tries to wrestle-up from here but is stuffed in the front headlock.
V36: While pushed against the fence. Sandhagen ensures to get 2-on-1 wrist control. Once he breaks the grip, he circles into Dillashaw while maintaining the 2-on-1, and gets a mini arm drag to reverse positions.
Anything can happen in a fight, but I do see Sandhagen’s experience and craft taking the coveted 0 of Umar Nurmagomedov. Given Sandhagen can maintain offense on the front foot, bringing out unfavorable tendencies with his jab, punching off the kicks, a d forcing bad kicks with pressure and a double-jab, Sandhagen can keep the fight in his domain. The possibility of him giving up his back for the finish is alway there, and Nurmagomedov’s proficiency in this position only makes it all the more worrying. The front-foot gameplan will be hard to execute with the RNC spectre hanging over Sandhagen’s head, but he is more than an intelligent enough fighter to put it to the test. How do you guys see this fight?
Can you see Umar winning on the feet?
Who are you rooting for?
Let me know below. I had a joy watching Sandhagen’s film and I pray you can watch this before the fights tomorrow. Have a blessed weekend!
-Kick
P.S. People will probably mention the flying knee. A Sandhagen special but given Umar’s bladed stance and primarily getting takedowns from the clinch or on reactive s