UFC Freedom 250 Fight Analysis Care Package
Pugilists take over the White House Lawn
Have to start by thanking Phantom Punch Breakdowns for shouting me out with this simple format.
I sincerely hope you are all doing well my friends. I have to apologize for my lack of activity of late. Life has a funny way of getting in the way when you’re getting married, getting sick, and the like. Life is truly a blessing, and the past few months have been exciting to say the least. I assure you that a bevy of film rooms, articles, and videos on this platform and the substack are all to come, and I am thankful for the support you all have continued to provide to me.
With that, we have something we haven’t had from the UFC in quite a long time: a true spectacle. UFC Freedom 250 will have the distinct honor of taking place on the South Lawn of the White House, the first professional sporting event to take place there. Teddy Roosevelt hosted some personal training sessions and sparred with famous boxers and judoka, but an event of this magnitude is simply unprecedented. Unprecedented is the operative word, as the UFC is also putting genuine effort to make this card a spectacle. They are spending money without an immediate return, (all guests are invited, building a structure from scratch, bigger bonuses, vignette style videos between fights) investing in the gravitas and enormity of the event to celebrate America. Prioritizing shareholder value at all costs has seemingly been their modus operandi for the better part of 10 years and the product has suffered as a result. This follows in the vein of their event at the Sphere and UFC 300 as their annual ‘high-effort’ event and though I am skeptical, the optimist in me hopes this can lead to to even more.
Usyk just fought at the Pyramids of Giza, now we’re at the White House. Fight sports are eternal to the human spirit, what better way to tap into that then fighting at the greatest monuments around the world? Simply having such a backdrop adds to the weight and historical significance of such an event. 30 years ago this sport was in the trenches, and now it is on the most prestigious stage imaginable.
The most impressive fighters in the sport today will put on an event we can only hope is worthy of the hype that has been generated from it. Let’s start from the top.
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
In isolation this title fight is intriguing. Every single one of Gaethje’s fights is illuminating as he appears in a slightly different mold. In the Ferguson fight he was composed, the Khabib and Oliveira fights he couldn’t stay on his feet, clinched and wrestled in the Fiziev fights, and fought from the front headlock in the Pimblett match. In this way, its nigh impossible to really know what strategy Gaethje is going to come with on fight night. He will always have his uppercuts, leg kicks, and looping punches, but will he head kick? Will he jab? Will he enforce the clinch without providing openings? Whichever Justin Gaethje decides to show up on fight night will determine his chances against the most dazzling talent the sport has ever seen.
Topuria Looking BULKY
Not many are giving Gaethje his flowers for this fight, largely because the Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan fights seem much more tantalizing for Ilia Topuria than the veteran lightweight making his third attempt at the undisputed belt. So what kind of Gaethje is needed to beat Ilia Topuria? Strictly speaking of weapons, his jab, leg kicks, high kicks, pressure, and the clinch (with one large caveat) should be immediate priorities that have troubled Topuria in the past, it’s merely determining how he can adjust his levers and slot each of these into his game.
The Jab: Surprise Topuria with the speed of his jab, let him feel the power, and use it as an initiating tool to enforce pressure
Leg Kicks: Topuria tends to out low kick more prolific calf kickers, but he has yet to contend with someone who throws them with as much stank as the Highlight. Every commentator notes how his stance naturally makes them a weapon to utilize. Cannot be thrown naked as Topuria will throw an overhand to counter.
High Kicks: Caught Ferguson with a high kick in the closed stance, and the lead leg high kick he was caught with by Herbert is stark in everyone’s minds given his tendency to slip punches.
The Clinch: Still a bit of a grey area for Topuria’s striking, important to note that he KO’d both Volkanovski and Holloway as they defensively reached for collar ties.
I talk about the concept of Gaethje as a chameleon in my preview podcast with Phantom Punch Breakdowns ahead of his most recent win:
And if you want to see Gaethje mixing his weapons somewhat competently, read my breakdown of his rematch with striking dynamo Rafael Fiziev:
The focus has been on Gaethje thus far solely because of how impressive Topuria is as a product. Apart from being one of the most composed and skilled fighters I’ve ever seen, he is on one of the most impressive runs in the sport. Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira, though all past their absolute peaks, all won their next 1-2 fights after losing to Topuria. Topuria’s most (maybe 2nd most) impressive performance was the one where he had the most adversity, against Max Holloway, and in the following article I dive deep into the quirks of his game:
Phantom Punch Breakdowns and I also spoke ahead of Ilia’s destruction of Charles Oliveira, and how elements of Oliveira’s game might trouble him:
Finally, though I doubt Ilia Topuria will take the same approach, his former rival Max Holloway provided the most comprehensive breakdown to beating The Highlight:
Alex Pereria vs. Ciryl Gane
Alex Pereira will be the first man to contest for a title in a third weight class. Puffy Poatan is primed to make this happen, but Ciryl Gane presents some unique issues. Gane’s tepid back-foot style, great jab, lateral movement, and bevy of front and low kicks provide interesting questions for the Brazilian to answer. Both Ankalaev and Prochazka troubled him with the same two kicks in their meetings, but other than the lone loss to Ankalaev, it was Pereira who was standing at the end of those matches.
How well his speed and power translate to heavyweight will likely determine how much success he is able to accumulate. Other than a wrestler, Gane is one of the worst matchups for Pereira at heavyweight, being the fastest and most athletic man in the weight class.
I wrote about how Khalil Rountree has had some of the most interesting success in his loss to Pereira, and what a gameplan for that might look like:
And how Pereira overcame what seemed like a poor stylistic matchup with sheer aggression, something that wouldn’t be the worst idea against Gane:
There’s so many unknown X-factors surrounding this fight that its difficult to fully grasp what it will look like from a technical perspective.
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
I don’t have much to say on Zahabi’s end, other than that he robbed the GOAT Jose Also, but he’s been quietly moving up the rankings and O’Malley is certainly the toughest test he’s yet to face. O’Malley himself has not the best run of it, and I break down how Merab broke him in their second meeting here:
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Michael Chandler, the avatar of America is unfortunately old and well past his best, made most obvious by how comprehensively he was beaten down by Paddy Pimblett after creating moments against Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira. I analyzed how Charles Oliveira (almost) completely boxed him out of striking exchanges in their second meeting here:
I’m sure is he is absolutely ecstatic for the opportunity to fight at the White House, but Ruffy is a man who is streamlining his game with Volkanovski’s team, setting himself up to be a force in the mid to high end of Lightweight. Funnily enough, Michael Chandler is getting his wish to fight Conor McGregor granted, but in the way a genie might pervert it, as I discussed how Ruffy’s early fights saw him doing a poor imitation of an orthodox Conor McGregor:
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Though disappointed in how stagnant Lopes looked against Volkanovski, he continues to be one of my favorite fighters (when he’s not fighting someone who knows how to circle). Though unlikely to ever reach the top of the division until Volkanovski’s retirement, he is taking on another up and coming featherweight in Steve Garcia. I was very impressed by Garcia’s last performance (even if the questions around Onama and betting scandals might be true) as he’s a genuinely potent boxer. The last time Lopes took on a surging prospect, he came out on top:
But Volkanovski showed us that his issues with footwork are well known, and unlikely to improve:
Even if Lopes can pull some interesting ideas out of his hat:
With that we are about 6 hours from one of the most historic UFC events of all time, and I suggest you spend it heating up the grill, taming a bald eagle, and grabbing some brewskis while you read and listen to the most primo analysis around.
GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS
GOD BLESS AMERICA
AND GENTLEMEN
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